Last week featured a slew of releases, but the most important one as of this writing is the GDP estimates. Both the GDP and GDP deflator data have started to reverse their previous trends, raising serious concerns that the economy may be experiencing deflationary effects.
While many useful indicators are set to be released this week, the previous week left us only with the Leading Economic Indicators, which showed signs of the economy slowing down in the future. Consumer Sentiment reports also indicated widespread dissatisfaction across all levels of income and education, largely due to the impacts of recent tariff decisions, which have been on hold.
While the week had a significant absence of impactful data releases, there are still the notable U.S. retail figures numbers, as the turbulent tariff policies that have been announced have sent shockwaves across many industries. This time the U.S. retail sales have seen a significant jump as consumers try to get ahead of the tariff policies, although it is suspected that the subsequent data will show a significant curtailing of purchasing power by consumers. This restraint in the future is what has most analysts concerned about the future in addition to inflation rising as a result of the tariff policies.
Last week’s inflation reports, both the CPI and PPI, came in significantly cooler than expected. However, this must be viewed in the context of the administration’s recent tariff policies. Rather than signaling a healthy reduction in inflation, the data points to signs of deflation–which can be just as damaging to the economy as high inflation. While the FOMC Minutes offered little insight regarding interest rate changes, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that no action will be taken until more data becomes available. Finally, the latest consumer sentiment report dropped to its lowest level in three years, with inflation concerns reaching their highest point since 1981.
The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration’s recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets.
When you’re thinking about buying a home, you may hear a lot about mortgage rates going up or down. But have you ever wondered what causes these changes? One of the biggest influences on mortgage rates is the Federal Reserve, often called “the Fed.” While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, its policies play a major role in how much you’ll pay for your home loan. Let’s break it down in simple terms:
With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases–including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter–have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions.
When applying for a mortgage, your creditworthiness plays a significant role in determining your loan approval and interest rates. Two commonly referenced terms are FICO score and credit score, which are often used interchangeably but have distinct differences.
The previous week had the Federal Reserve making their first rate decision since the Trump administration had taken office. With many uncertainties about the current direction of things, the Federal Reserve had decided there would not be any change necessary to the current rates. Stating that the current inflation and economic conditions have largely been a result of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs. Chairman Powell has been strongly dovish at this point, stating they would need to “see how things actually work out.” There were a slew of other minor data releases but none were far reaching in their impact on the economy and current direction of things.
The inflation data report released last week showed a surprising result–it was cooler than expected across the board. This has led to a much more positive outlook, even in light of recent events regarding the Trump administration. While consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan still showed more dissatisfaction than expected, they were accompanied by largely positive data across various releases. There are strong expectations that there will be no interest rate increases, with some potential for rate cuts this year.
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