The week after the inflation data reports was expected to be relatively quiet, with the most significant event being a meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He remained tight-lipped about when rate cuts would happen, but given his demeanor, he did not deny that rate cuts were on the way — simply that he would not indicate when they would arrive. This has only confirmed to lending partners and the broader market that they were right to feel optimistic that rate cuts are possible before the end of the year.
There were a few cyclical reports released, with the Economic Indicators report taking the lead and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book being among the highlights.
Economic Indicators
The leading index for the economy fell again in June for the fourth month in a row, reflecting a slowdown in U.S. growth since the beginning of the year. The privately run Conference Board said the index slid 0.2% last month. The index had fallen for two straight years before briefly turning positive in February.
Federal Reserve’s Beige Book
U.S. economic activity seemed to soften in the past two months, with five of the Federal Reserve’s 12 regions reporting flat or declining activity, a Fed survey released Wednesday found. That is three more weak districts than were reported in the last survey, in May.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% with the current rate at 6.05%
- 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% with the current rate at 6.77%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.32%
- 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.34%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 243,000 compared to the expected claims of 229,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.
What’s Ahead
Next week, the government will release the Consumer Confidence Report and the total U.S. employment data. Both of these reports should provide insights into the state of the economy and consumer sentiment.