With the New Year, the final week only featured the normal reports of Jobless Claims, S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY), and Chicago Business Barometer. All of them will have limited impact compared to the GDP and the Inflation data reports that have already been released.
The final release of the GDP figures are the last large releases of the year before moving into Q1 of 2024, with the GDP report showing the economy had shown growth — particularly in Q3 with it tapering off by the end of the year. While the growth had been strong, it still was less than expected by analysts, however the final numbers do indicate we are on a track for a soft-landing and with the potential to all-together avoid a potential recession. The only other reports of note were the Personal Spending and PCE Index Prices.
With both CPI and PPI reports well within expectations, there is a favorable reception across the broader market spectrum that these reports are a strong sign that the Federal Reverse will begin rate cuts in 2024. A soft landing for the economy is the primary goal of the Federal Reserve, and it would seem their measures have had the intended impact with the Jobless claims seeing a recent new low and many of the primary economic signals pointing to a stable 2024.
This will be another light week before the next large releases of the CPI and PPI data. The overall unemployment numbers have been trending lower which will likely leave the Federal Reserve board in a state of suspension. They have made many assertive statements they do not intend to cut rates soon, but the signs of a soft landing for the economy are numerous, leading to much speculation about impending rate cuts. As a general indicator, lending partners have seen a near 6 week-to-week decline in lending rates. The largest data releases this week are the U.S. Unemployment Reports and Non-Farm Payroll data releases.
The first week of December’s largest reports are the GDP estimates, which will be the second estimations of the year prior to the final release. The final GDP reports will be after the new year and are the strongest indicator for the economic state of the country.
The numbers: The leading economic index declined 0.8% in October and fell for the 19th month in a row, but the U.S. economy doesn’t appear any closer to a recession than when the losing streak began.
There’s a consistent trend of inflation slowing down which brings a greater potential for the end of any rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, signaling a soft-landing for the economy which has been touted by Jerome Powell. With a soft landing, it does also signal a strong potential for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering rates in the coming future.
The week following the FOMC rate decision meetings are typically very light, with the two most influential releases being the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the weekly Job Claims reports. The more positive news is mortgage lending rates have been on the decline in the last two weeks.
The week following the FOMC rate decision meetings are typically very light, with the two most influential releases being the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the weekly Job Claims reports. The more positive news is mortgage lending rates have been on the decline in the last two weeks.
The most important data of the quarter was released, signaling the direction for many markets […]
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