Last week was a fairly light week, with the non-farm payroll data being the most significant release. The data showed that payrolls are growing at a faster rate than historical trends suggest, which could indicate that inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target. In contrast, the upcoming week has a busy schedule, with many important economic releases lined up back to back.
With the release of the PCE Index data, we are seeing the trend hold as inflation continues to slow down. This gives the Federal Reserve room to continue its rate cuts in the future. Following the positive news for inflation data, the GDP has also seen a larger-than-expected growth of 3% this quarter. The only data running against the tide is the Consumer Confidence reports, which reported to show that consumers are at their most anxious since 2021. We should expect a greater impact on the lending and broader markets ahead of the elections.
The long-awaited week has come and within expectations, the Federal Reserve has decided to reduce interest rates for central banks by 50 basis points. This is the bigger of the two options for a rate cut, with the lesser being 25 basis points. The impact of this cannot be understated as this gives an official nod that the economy is in a good spot and inflation is under control, according to the Federal Reserve’s outlook on the data. The only black mark on the week of releases is the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators showing the economy has been in a slower trend for the past 6 months. The Federal Reserve, despite the rate cut, has continued to remain hard in its stance about not cutting rates too quickly. This will likely depend on future data.
The week for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision has finally come. This is the week everyone has been waiting which will decide whether we will see any rate cuts this year. There has been a lot of speculation that this will be the first rate cut and likely more in the future. With the Federal Reserve giving hints the data has been on track, the outcome of one seems very likely. With the previous week’s CPI and PPI statistics coming in, which both were slightly warmer than expected, the data still largely shows that inflation has been kept under control. This may affect the decision, but ultimately throughout the year, the data has been consistent with few surprises. The week rounded out with the Consumer Sentiment data reports showing favorable results, indicating that the current state of the economy is in a neutral position in the eyes of the average consumer.
This week, the most important release of the year regarding inflation data will occur. Once again the CPI and PPI take the front stage clearing the way for rate cuts made by the Federal Reserves. Based on several indicators, there is strong confidence that if the upcoming inflation data meets expectations, we could see interest rate cuts before the year ends. In addition to the inflation data, the Consumer Credit reports will be released early this week. Both lending partners and the broader market have high expectations for these reports.
With the PCE Index data coming in as exactly as expected and the Federal Reserve signaling a strong potential for a rate cut, there is much optimism we will be seeing a rate cut this year if not the start of the next year. Among the PCE inflation data reports were the GDP initial figures, which projected the economy has grown faster than expected. Additionally, Personal Income data has also grown faster than expected. Both are very positive signs with inflation finally showing signs of flagging after in part due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy.
Last week’s light release schedule suggests that the Federal Reserve may be planning to cut rates this year, as most inflation data align with this expectation. This week, the only notable releases are the minor FOMC Minutes and the U.S. leading economic indicator index. While these indicators came in slightly worse than expected, the results are not significant enough to impact the upcoming rate decision.
The results are in, and both the CPI and PPI inflation reports confirm that inflation has come in lower than expected, surpassing expectations. This is a great result leading forward for the next FOMC Rate Decision meeting, as there is high optimism now that the rate cuts are coming this year. With next week’s FOMC Minutes guiding the next meeting, we can expect to hear their stance going forward. We also see a matching indicator in Retail Sales, showing a significant gain across the board, while auto sales had the largest increase in one and a half years. This aligns with previous consumer confidence reports and will serve as a good reference when making the next rate decision for the Federal Reserve.
With so little in the way of data releases following the previous week’s FOMC Rate Decision, we’re left with a small release schedule with Consumer Credit and U.S. Trade Deficit rounding up the reports. While relatively light indicators of the current health of the economy, they are still useful for determining more impactful trends in the future. Next week, the inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI are the ones to look out for. This time, these are the ones that will largely determine whether we see rate cuts this year, and lending partners have already been lowering rates in anticipation.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the current interest rates has paved the way for a potential rate cut in September. While this news has been met enthusiastically by lending partners, the broader markets have indicated a slightly less warm reception despite both the data and Federal Reserve’s intentions being a match. Until September, we can expect a lull in significant data releases, with more substantial decisions anticipated then.
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