All posts tagged: Jobless Claims

The PCE Index has aligned with expectations, and as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, it eases the sense of urgency for policy action. GDP data has also indicated continued economic growth, though this is tempered by future forecasts predicting a potential economic contraction. This outlook is further reflected in the Consumer Confidence report, which has shown a significant decline since the change in administration. Uncertainty is evident across lending and broader markets, affecting all aspects of the economy.

The most impactful report released last week was the regular Consumer Sentiment reports, which have indicated the more recent concerns rising food costs have soured the view on the current state of the economy for the U.S. The talks between the Federal Reserve members have also slanted in a negative direction as they feel they still do not have a strong grip on inflation. With the Trump administration also shaking things up in the office with their views on Tariffs, the land lending and broader markets have seen a lot of turmoil and uncertainty about the future. There should be dampened expectations going forward across all markets.

The major inflation data reports have been released, and the initial readings indicate that inflation has exceeded expectations. While the data suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to allow any further rate cuts beyond those already implemented, optimism remains in the broader lending markets. This optimism is driven by expectations that the new administration may introduce changes to monetary policy in the longer term. Although inflation has come in higher than expected, it remains to be seen what next week’s PCE Index–the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator–will reveal.

Last week’s reports were plentiful, but few had a greater impact on the lending and broader markets. The most significant among them were the Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment reports.

Last week’s reports were plentiful, but few had a greater impact on the lending and broader markets. The most significant among them were the Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment reports.

The previous week’s reins were held by the Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision and also the preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Index. With the PCE Index coming in well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it suggests that rate cuts may be postponed much longer this year than initially anticipated.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week features the CPI and PPI inflation data reports, making for a busy schedule. However, this week’s reports are relatively limited in terms of significant market impact. The most notable releases include Unemployment Data and U.S. Wages, both of which will complement the inflation data to provide a broader outlook on the economy’s trajectory. Additionally, the Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit reports may offer insight into consumer conditions amid a changing administration and ongoing inflation. Notably, inflation has had a strong impact on markets such as eggs and livestock poultry, which have reached all-time high prices in the past decade.

With the holiday of the previous week in addition to an extremely light release week, only the Consumer Sentiment report is weighing in on the lending markets. With both the inflation reports showing inflation cooling off, there is still some optimism about where the Federal Reserve will take things. This optimism is only cooled by the uncertainty the new presidency will bring. Many markets have responded in kind, with lending partners showing a trend of increasing rates and other markets preparing for uncertainty. Within the next few months, we will see how the new administration intends to handle monetary policy. This will have a greater impact than the Federal Reserve on the direction things will be headed in the future. Next week will be the first FOMC Rate Decision of the year, with many being optimistic about a potential rate cut with the recent inflation data.

Recent economic data brought significant relief, with both the CPI and PPI indicating that inflation was running cooler than expected. In the context of the current administration, this was welcome news, helping to ease concerns about potential monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve has very frequently signaled they will follow the data and this time it was a positive result towards reducing rates further this year. The change in administration, however, still remains unknown and there is a lot of unrest across lending partners and markets alike. This was also followed by a better than expected Retail Sales report which has shown 2025 to start off with some economic momentum. Both reports are critical factors in shaping future rate adjustments. Despite this, lending partners have been raising rates in the last few months, driven largely by uncertainty tied to the transition of administrative positions.

In the first FOMC Minutes of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled strongly that while officials remain vigilant for inflation exceeding their expectations, they have no plans to raise interest rates. Much of the apprehension among speculators is the monetary policy which could keep inflation higher than expected for some time. Meanwhile, unemployment reports indicate that the previous year remained stable, consistently staying below the annual high–a positive sign of a stronger job market. However, this has been somewhat dampened by the recent reports of the Trade Deficit. Compared to the previous year, the trade gap has nearly doubled, potentially clashing with the policies introduced by the Trump Administration.

With the holiday season coming to a conclusion, there was little in the way of data releases. Last week, the main reports were the Chicago Business Barometer and the ISM Manufacturing Index, both indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. This comes as we await the upcoming administration change at the White House. The impact of this is relatively minimal, with lending rates continuing their downward trend. Next week we will be expecting the year-over-year for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), wrapping up 2024.