All posts tagged: Mortgage Rates

With so little in the way of data releases following the previous week’s FOMC Rate Decision, we’re left with a small release schedule with Consumer Credit and U.S. Trade Deficit rounding up the reports. While relatively light indicators of the current health of the economy, they are still useful for determining more impactful trends in the future. Next week, the inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI are the ones to look out for. This time, these are the ones that will largely determine whether we see rate cuts this year, and lending partners have already been lowering rates in anticipation.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the current interest rates has paved the way for a potential rate cut in September. While this news has been met enthusiastically by lending partners, the broader markets have indicated a slightly less warm reception despite both the data and Federal Reserve’s intentions being a match. Until September, we can expect a lull in significant data releases, with more substantial decisions anticipated then.

Following the release of the PCE Index figures, which the Federal Reserve prefers as its key inflation metric, the data indicates a slight increase in inflation for the third quarter. Nonetheless, market sentiment remains unchanged, and the prediction that the Federal Reserve is on track to implement rate cuts this year holds firm. Saddled along with the PCE Index, we also have the Personal Income & Spending reports which have indicated the economy is still expanding, and the GDP estimates have also corroborated the reports with their own solid pre-release numbers.

The week after the inflation data reports was expected to be relatively quiet, with the most significant event being a meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He remained tight-lipped about when rate cuts would happen, but given his demeanor, he did not deny that rate cuts were on the way — simply that he would not indicate when they would arrive. This has only confirmed to lending partners and the broader market that they were right to feel optimistic that rate cuts are possible before the end of the year.

There were a few cyclical reports released, with the Economic Indicators report taking the lead and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book being among the highlights.

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

With the FOMC Minutes coming precisely within expectations, there is once again a lot of optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Much of the Q2 data reports show favorable amounts of reduction in inflation as well as a more stable economic outlook for the rest of the year. With the larger reports in PMI Manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payroll figures, the overall outlook seems to align with the rest of the data points, justifying the more recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This week should give the final results on Q2 inflation results with the new releases of CPI and PPI data reports.

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.