The week for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision has finally come. This is the week everyone has been waiting which will decide whether we will see any rate cuts this year. There has been a lot of speculation that this will be the first rate cut and likely more in the future. With the Federal Reserve giving hints the data has been on track, the outcome of one seems very likely. With the previous week’s CPI and PPI statistics coming in, which both were slightly warmer than expected, the data still largely shows that inflation has been kept under control. This may affect the decision, but ultimately throughout the year, the data has been consistent with few surprises. The week rounded out with the Consumer Sentiment data reports showing favorable results, indicating that the current state of the economy is in a neutral position in the eyes of the average consumer.
Producer Price Index
U.S. wholesale prices showed a mild increase in August and reinforced the idea the rate of inflation is returning to low pre-pandemic levels. The moderate increase in wholesale costs follows a similarly mild rise in consumer prices last month. With inflation slowing, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates next week.
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index rose a mild 0.2% in August, the government said Wednesday, in line with The Wall Street forecast. Yet a measure of prices that strips out volatile food and energy costs, known as the core rate, rose a somewhat stiffer 0.3%. That was a tick above the forecast and matched the biggest increase in five months.
Consumer Sentiment
The rise in sentiment, 0.54%, is the highest since May. Consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high in September, just ahead of the U.S. presidential election, as expectations about future inflation fell to the lowest level since 2020. Yet Americans are still “guarded” in their views about the economy.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of –0.20% with the current rate at 5.27%
- 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15% with the current rate at 6.20%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase for this week. Current rates at 5.68%
- 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.69%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 232,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.
What’s Ahead
The FOMC Rate Decision will take place on Sunday of this upcoming week.