With the PCE Index data coming in as exactly as expected and the Federal Reserve signaling a strong potential for a rate cut, there is much optimism we will be seeing a rate cut this year if not the start of the next year. Among the PCE inflation data reports were the GDP initial figures, which projected the economy has grown faster than expected. Additionally, Personal Income data has also grown faster than expected. Both are very positive signs with inflation finally showing signs of flagging after in part due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy.
GDP (2nd Revision)
The U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual pace in the second quarter instead of the 2.8% rate originally estimated, revised government data released Thursday show. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting second-quarter GDP to be unrevised at 2.8% rate.
PCE Index
Core personal consumption expenditures prices increased 0.2% in July and 2.6% from a year ago. The 12-month figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% estimate. All-item inflation came in respectively at 0.2% and 2.5%, in line with forecasts. Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast.
Consumer Sentiment
The second and final reading of the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer-sentiment index in August rose slightly to 67.9 from a preliminary 67.8 released earlier in the month, the University of Michigan said Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to improve slightly to a final reading of 68. The index was 66.4 in July.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 5.51%.
- 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 6.35%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.08% change for this week. Current rates at 5.82%
- 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.09% change for this week. Current rates at 5.83%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 232,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.
What’s Ahead
Only one important data release next week. The one to look for is the Non-farm Payrolls which has always been a strong indicator of whether wages have been keeping up with the rate of inflation.